Chapter 4 - Facilitators and relevant factors

4.4 The future is already here

4.4.1 Big Data - Law enforcement considerations

An important application of Big Data in the area of law enforcement is predictive policing - the application of mainly quantitative analytical techniques to identify likely targets for intervention and to prevent crime, or solve past crimes by making statistical predictions [165]. It used by law enforcement, e.g. to predict future patterns of crime and identify vulnerable areas [166] as well as for opinion mining [167].

Predictive policing is seen as a method that allows LE to work more effectively and proactively with limited resources. The methods used fall into four general categories: predicting crimes, predicting offenders, predicting perpetrators’ identities and predicting victims of crime.

While the concept of predictive policing is not new it is the large amount of data, the different sources of data and the speed at which this data can be analysed that offers new promises to LE in combating crime, including cybercrime, especially when combined with non-traditional crime data such as social media data to provide real-time access to intelligence. It allows LE to react faster and explore more leads.

As Big Data analysis is usually unsuitable to answer the question of causality, it may create more challenges for investigators to produce supporting evidence given the sheer amount of data that needs to be analysed. On the other hand, Big Data analysis can be used to point to the most promising areas for an investigation, i.e. where to find causal relationships. In order to do so, LE needs to be in a position to effectively and efficiently combine evidence from different sources and present it in a meaningful way.

There is however a risk of using Big Data incorrectly or excessively. It is therefore important for LE to use analytical tools carefully, proportionally and in line with relevant legislation and regulations.

Another area of Big Data that is already of relevance to LE and is expected to increase is the analysis of open-source information or open source intelligence (OSINT).