Chapter 3 - Crime Areas

3.4 Payment fraud - Future threats and developments

The USA is one of the most popular locations to cash-out compromised cards due to low prevalence of EMV protection. In 2015, the situation may improve due to a liability shift that may result in a strong push towards the adoption of EMV. The shift means that the issuers and merchants still using non-EMV compliant devices will become liable for all fraudulent transactions [78]. Should this initiative succeed, it would significantly hamper the abuse of European cards in the US.

Similar to EMV protection, which displaced crime to non-compliant jurisdictions, implementation of Geoblocking is likely to have a negative effect on fraud in countries where it was not yet implemented. For example, a rise in skimming in Sweden was likely driven by Geoblocking adopted in nearby countries.

3D printing may become a driving force behind payment card fraud, facilitating convenient customisation of skimming devices for different models of ATMs. This follows the trend of the industrialisation of cybercrime, allowing for mass production of skimming units. The schematics for the devices can be shared on P2P networks and traded on online marketplaces.

Although they currently attract too much attention to be practical for criminals, wearable technologies may soon prove their value for shoulder surfing criminals.

The proliferation of smart phones has given rise to a number of different mobile and contactless payment technologies, such as Near Field Communication, QR codes, mobile wallets or Bluetooth Low Energy. While it remains hard to predict the outcome of this competition, it can be assumed that mobile and contactless phone payments will continue to grow in popularity for reasons of convenience and availability. This will inevitably make them an attractive target for criminals looking for exploitable vulnerabilities in these technologies. On the other hand, once widespread, mobile and contactless payment technologies may lead to a decrease in traditional forms of attacks such as skimming or shoulder surfing.